More than 100,000 young people a year will be forced to survive without unemployment payments for at least six months under the Abbott government's controversial welfare changes.
A breakdown of the Abbott government's own budget figures, provided to Fairfax Media, reveals it expects nearly 110,000 young people a year to be without work for six months and to be then moved on to a new work for the dole program.
Under the new rules, unemployed people under 30 will have to wait six months before receiving benefits. They would then undertake six months of work for the dole and be paid to do so. If they fail to find work or study during that period they would then face another six months without payments.
The move is expected to save the government $1.2 billion over four years and will apply to new claimants from next year, with some exceptions.
Social Services Minister Kevin Andrews has justified the changes to Newstart and Youth Allowance by saying young people "should be learning or earning".
"That's why we're going to tighten access to unemployment benefits," he said.
His office provided a detailed breakdown to Fairfax Media of how the savings will be reached.
A spokeswoman said about 700,000 people would be affected over the next four years by the changes. She said it expected about 200,000 people over that period to enrol in full-time study or training and to try to get student income support. A further 70,000 "would test their eligibility for other payments".
The remaining 430,000 people, over four years, "would serve their waiting period and then undertake work for the dole activities".
National Welfare Rights Network president Maree O'Halloran said the changes would hit middle-income families who would have to support young people, while people without family support faced a grim outlook. "It's inevitable some of these people will become homeless or destitute," she said.
Ms O'Halloran said young people were already "bearing the brunt" of the changing nature of work. "You're going into a world of contract and casual labour and you don't have the safety net that everyone had before you," she said. "What I see is a tsunami hitting young people in this budget."
Victorian Council of Social Service chief executive Emma King said the changes would consign 100,000 young people "to a life of poverty and disadvantage".
"We think it's extraordinarily callous that on the governments own predictions that they are going to see 100,000 young people every year who won't have any access to government support for six months."
Ms King said there was a lack of investment to help young people.
"I think we've heard a lot about people going surfing or young people doing other things, which is really offensive when we see many young people who are desperate to work but find it extremely difficult to have their first job opportunity."
Youth unemployment has risen since the global financial crisis and is now more than 12 per cent. Since 2008 the average amount of time unemployed for young job-seekers has risen from about 16 weeks to nearly 29 weeks, according to a Brotherhood of St Laurence report.
Government figures from September 2013 show that for people under 30 on Newstart nearly three-quarters had moved off the benefit within a year. After six months, 53.3 per cent had exited Newstart.
