The current Fremantle injury list contains an intriguing entry.
“Michael Walters Ankle 2-6 weeks”
This enigmatic verdict on the health of the gifted small forward may have a large bearing on which team wins the 2014 AFL premiership.
If Walters' return is closer to the ‘'2'’, he gets game time before the finals, and he is somewhere near his best in September, the Dockers will have a forward line capable of kicking a grand final winning score.
If his return is more of a ‘'6'’, meaning Walters is not match-fit come the finals, the Dockers may lack the class and potency up forward to go all the way.
Walters, who has played just 45 games, is that valuable a commodity. And small forwards like him are under-rated across the competition.
The classy left-footer had surgery in April to repair a dislocated tendon in his left ankle, a procedure expected to end his season. But by late May, there was hopeful talk from Fremantle coach Ross Lyon about a possible return in round 18. There is good reason the canny mentor is sweating on the availability of his formerly wayward star.
While all contenders have an imposing key forward, and all AFL clubs would love to have Sydney’s multiple tall scoring options, the premiership can be won with one key forward, if that team possesses classy small options.
Since 2007, traditional tall targets have been outscored by small-to medium forwards in grand finals.
Last year, Jack Gunston booted four goals, but Lance Franklin and Jarryd Roughead managed only three goals between them in Hawthorn’s win. Matthew Pavlich led the Docker scoring with three goals, followed by Walters’ two, but he is the only key forward who has kicked the most goals for a grand final team since Cameron Mooney’s five led Geelong’s rout of Port Adelaide in 2007.
The Coleman Medal is still won by a big fellow, but at the business end of the season, poachers such as Mark Williams, Steve Johnson, Andrew Krakouer and Paul Chapman have been among the major goalkickers.
A spread of scoring options is most desirable, but all recent flag-winning teams have possessed classy, influential small forwards.
These best of these players are multiple threats.
Walters is uncanny around goals, but he is also pacy, works very hard defensively, and as we saw in the 2013 grand final, can take a big grab. It is a set of skills not many defenders can match. He can feed at the feet of a tall, get into space on the lead, and occasionally transform a passage of play by plucking the ball out of the heavens. Add great finishing, and you have a potent, multi-faceted scoring force.
Modern footy offers more opportunities for the skilful small scorers. The necessity to cover more of the ground due to stoppage tactics and zones involves flankers and pockets in play deep in defence and across the midfield. The need to get numbers rotating through the midfield and the emphasis on defensive intensity all over the ground means goal-sneaks are not marooned all day in ‘starvation corner’ scavenging a handful of scoring opportunities to avoid becoming the first scapegoats at selection.
Scoring goals is more difficult than ever, and scoring rates are down, with 2014 providing fewer goals per team (12.5) than any season since 2000. A smart natural forward who converts efficiently, or makes something out of nothing, is more valuable than ever.
Collingwood’s forward line minus its young jack-in-the-box Jamie Elliott is a barren wasteland. In his absence, even when behemoth Travis Cloke was dominant, the Magpies did not have enough other genuine threats to cobble together winning scores. Resting midfielders and ‘defensive’ forwards do not a dangerous forward line make.
Instinctive forwards who know where to be and when are more valuable than ever. The only problem is that these talents have traditionally been tied to 'unstable extroverts' who are defensively deficient.
These days, the clever little man must also have the workrate of a tagger, and the conscience of a miser, and be busy harassing defenders and preventing opponents from setting up counter-attacks off half-back.
The forward line 'press' emphasised this attribute to the point that some forwards were marked more on tackles per game than the number of goals they scored or helped create.
Like many aspects of modern life, this concentration on process instead of results is fine when the results are good. But when a team stops scoring, all the midfielders and diligent utilities in the world won't help. Effort can be high but behinds, not goals, result. Makeshift forwards go to the wrong places at the wrong time, and end up chasing instead of being chased.
Such a forward line needs true forwards, players whose primary instinct is to score themselves, those rare creatures with flair matched with skill. Converters.
Hawthorn has a fine balance in attack, with tall timber Roughead and David Hale complemented by elite ‘third’ tall Jack Gunston. But one of the most important Hawks is Luke Breust, who locks the ball in the front half, but also hits the scoreboard. Breust’s extraordinary accuracy - he went 29 shots without a miss until last Friday night, equalling an old record held by the great Tony Lockett - makes him lethal. He is fifth on the Coleman Medal count.
Port Adelaide's forward line possesses elite skill at ground level, with Chad Wingard and Robbie Gray both among the most prolific small forwards in the competition. Gray, who spends enough time in the midfield that he averages 24 disposals per game in 2014, has poured in 26 majors to become an All-Australian contender. Elusive, tough and possessing great vision, he is a backman’s nightmare.
Silky left-footer Wingard has booted 27 goals, and his bursts of magic can make a goal out of a seemingly contained passage of play. Occasionally spectacular in the air, and often spectacular when snapping for goal in traffic, Wingard has booted three or more goals six times in 2014. Port won every one of those games. In their past three, consecutive defeats, he has been curtailed to a single major.
Sydney’s skyscraping forward line is famous, and it looks to lack a specialised small forward, but its array of classy midfielders is so large that the likes of Luke Parker (18 goals) and Kieren Jack have been menacing.
Crumbing hustler Ben McGlynn has been used further up the ground this year, but he pioneered the modern small forward role. An expert exploiter of the space opened up by congested midfields, he was one of the first players to score repeatedly on the end of ‘slingshot’ counter-attacks off half-back, often running into open goals unimpeded, thanks to his reading of the game. He booted 30 goals exactly in each of the past three seasons. But he also averaged over four tackles per game, creating opportunities through turnovers.
It is not hard to assign extra manpower to a dangerous marking target. But how do you double-team a rampant small forward, without giving away an obvious free kick?
It is with good reason that Ross Lyon would have been as eager as a rabid Docker fan to hear the following words from Dockers sports science manager Jason Weber last week.
“Michael is doing really well, he’s progressing along nicely and certainly approaching full volume,” Weber said.
“We’ve just got to get his speed and a few top-end pieces up and he’ll be right to go.”
Add a fit, in-form Walters to Matthew Pavlich and Chris Mayne, and the Dockers are once again looking like a team which could make it to the last Saturday in September.
SMALL BUT GOOD PACKAGES
Coleman Medal position; total goals; goals per game; tackles
5 Luke Breust 40, 2.6, 3.6
8 Hayden Ballantyne 38, 2.5, 2.4
11 Eddie Betts 34, 2.1, 3.4
16 Lindsay Thomas 30, 2, 3.1
16 Jamie Elliott 30, 2.1, 2.9
20 Chad Wingard 27, 1.8, 2.9
21 Robbie Gray 26, 1.6, 2.7
26 Troy Menzel 22, 1.6, 1.1
26 Josh Green 22, 1.6, 2.5
26 Brandon Matera 22, 1.8, 3.3
31 Brent Harvey 21, 1.3, 3.1
34 Cyril Rioli 20, 1.8, 3.9
34 Mark LeCras 20, 1.8, 4.2
