Iron ore, Australia's largest mineral export, has hit the price skids as Chinese demand slackens.
It's a similar story for most of the nation's other top mineral exports according to UBS analyst Daniel Morgan.
"Coal's depressed," he said. "Alumina and nickel are the ones that are a little bit brighter."
Here's analysis from UBS on Australia's mineral exports, ranked according to export value in 2013-14.
1. Iron ore ($74.1 billion)
"It's in mid-correction," Mr Morgan said. "No stabilisation is yet apparent from the trade signals." Was above $US120 per tonne in March, now hovering around $US$80.
2. Metallurgical coal ($22.9 billion)
"The United States is midway through implementing a bunch of [coalmining] shutdowns which will take time," Mr Morgan said. "Metallurgical coal will lift, but we need the US production shuts to come through." Was $US105 in March, currently around $US112 a tonne. Mr Morgan predicts it will lift to $US120 per tonne later this year and $US131 per tonne in 2015.
3. Thermal coal ($16.4 billion)
"Thermal is on its knees and has been for quite a while. A lot of the operations in Australia are loss-making or just 'washing their face'," Mr Morgan said. However, China is planning production cuts, stockpiles on Chinese ports have declined by a third, and Indonesia is requiring all coal exporters to have an export licence. Was $US62 in March, currently at $US67 per tonne. UBS is forecasting a rise to $US71 per tonne later in the year and $US77 per tonne in 2015.
4. Gold ($13.2 billion)
Was $US1340 per ounce in March, now $US1219. "It's drifting lower. The US are lifting interest rates and normalising monetary policy, which will reduce the need to own gold."
5. Copper ($8.7 billion)
"Copper's been drifting lower, but I think for the existing producers they're still making reasonable money." Again, however, the weakening Chinese economy may hit copper prices. On the bullish side, according to UBS, "any lift in China's general credit liquidity would be a boost. More evidence of growth in the US and Europe would be another potential short-term driver."Was $US3.20 per pound in March, now $US3.12
6. Alumina ($5.7 billion)
Refined from bauxite, alumina in turn is refined further into aluminium. It's one of the few metals that's looking up. "Indonesia has banned exports of bauxite, which means that China's scrambling. It's got to find bauxite." Spot prices have increased from a low of $US309 per tonne in July to $US339. "We forecast further upside in alumina's spot price to $US375 in 2015 from this delayed supply shock."
7. Aluminium ($3.3 billion)
"Aluminium had a bit of a false dawn recently where the price lifted on a number of things but it's now drifting lower again," Mr Morgan said. The Rusal/LME court case in London next month on aluminium warehouse reforms is a key factor on prices, he said. "If they rule in the LME favour, the warehouses get reformed, metal will start coming out and the price will come down. There will probably need to be production shuts." It is currently around US88c per pound, up from US77c in March.
8. Nickel ($3 billion)
"Nickel has rallied 30-40 per cent this year because of the Indonesian export ban," Mr Morgan said. It was around $US7 per pound in March and is now $US8 a pound. "The Chinese have stockpiled and they need to work through that before nickel goes for its next run, which may happen in 2015."
9. Zinc ($2.5 billion) and 10. Lead ($1.9 billion)
"They look really good because you've got big mine closures, which are scheduled to occur in 2015. That means you could have a shortfall. Prices have rallied in anticipation of that, so it's a question of how much is priced in." Zinc was US96c per pound in March and is now around $US1.03. Lead was US95cs per pound in March, now around US94c.
