Major budget cuts to the ABC will force the broadcaster to dramatically cut television and radio content and could cause political damage to the Abbott government, ABC managing director Mark Scott has warned.
In a speech to the University of Melbourne on Monday night, Mr Scott also outlined his programming priorities for the ABC: reduced investment in traditional TV and radio programs with more money spent on online and youth-focused content.
Mr Scott blasted as "mythical" the argument - put forward repeatedly by Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull - that the ABC can absorb large budget cuts without programming being affected.
"For every problem there is often a solution that is simple, neat and wrong," Mr Scott said.
"It's tempting to believe there might be a magical formula.
"The mythical back room solution, for instance, where large savings can be ripped out of a media organisation while content remains untouched, suggests binary decision-making, some separation between two fields that simply does not accord with practice in any organisation.
"To find substantial savings you have to look at all parts of your operation."
Mr Scott said major back office changes to the ABC will take time to produce savings and come with high up-front costs, including redundancies for retrenched staff. Budget cuts, by contrast, will take effect immediately.
"[I]f the government refuses to fund those transition costs, then it's going to be some time before any savings can be realised," he said. "Meanwhile, the only alternative will be to cut content dramatically."
Heavy cuts to the ABC would be politically unpopular given surveys show the vast majority of Australians value the ABC, Mr Scott said.
"Perhaps one of the greatest lessons of the ABC's history is that while governments have come and gone, public affection and respect for the ABC has lasted and prevailed," he said.
"The government faces many demands on its budget, and difficult decisions. Yet, as there is no doubt where the owners, the voters stand when it comes to our ABC, the decision about the future of the ABC should be one of their easier ones."
The government's powerful expenditure review committee is expected to decide on the ABC budget cuts in mid-November.
Mr Scott said the ABC was reviewing its programming offerings to keep pace with modern media habits.
"We will have to spend less on television and radio to spend more on online and mobile - not just in content, but on the capacity to deliver the services demanded," he said.
"We know that to flourish within this space, we need to play to our strengths - iview, ABC News online, Triple J, and ABC Kids."
Investing in Australian content will be a priority, he said.
Mr Scott said the one area the broadcaster will not cut is digital investment - despite being urged to do so by some politicians and commercial media outlets.
Mr Scott said he had expected to know the size of the government's funding cuts by now after it described the $35.5 million funding reduction in the May budget as a "downpayment" on future savings.
"Being unable to finalise our plans is frustrating for the board and executive, and particularly frustrating for our staff," he said.
"I believe we've been very patient and I'm sure you can forgive us, five months down the track, for wanting some certainty."
