The seats to watch

East Hills (0.2% Liberal)

Likely to be the first beneficiary of a correctional swing, East Hills' Labor candidate is civil rights lawyer Cameron Murphy, the son of former ALP attorney-general and judge Lionel Murphy. He starts just 0.2 per cent behind MP Glenn Brookes, the only Liberal to ever win the seat.

Prediction: Labor gain

Prospect (1.1% Liberal)

The former seat of Smithfield was a proud Labor stronghold until the 2011 election, when local councillor and petroleum geologist Andrew Rohan became its first Liberal MP. The ALP candidate for Prospect is criminal barrister and legal academic Hugh McDermott who lives locally.

Prediction: Labor gain.

Macquarie Fields (1.8% LIberal)

Local personality Pat Farmer puts the Liberals in the game here in a seat in which redistribution favours the government. He is standing against the ALP's Anoulack Chanthivong, a former mayor of Campbelltown who is favoured by the bookies to win the seat.

Monaro (2% Nationals)

Not quite the election-deciding seat that it mirrors federally, in 25 of the past 28 state elections, the people of Monaro have voted for the party that has gone on to form government. The ALP's Steve Whan is likely to benefit from a general correction towards Labor and unseat the National Party's John Barilaro.

Prediction: Labor gain

Rockdale (3.6% Liberal)

The Liberals' John Flowers won the seat in 2011, after 70 years in Labor hands, and has a 3.6 per cent margin. ALP candidate Steve Kamper is back for another shot.

Prediction: Labor gain

Granville (3.8% LIberal)

Tony Issa, the sitting Liberal member, won the normally safe Labor seat for the first time in 2011. Labor candidate Julia Finn has served on Parramatta Council since 1999.

Oatley (3.8% Liberal)

Liberal MP Mark Coure is defending a 3.8 per cent margin but will have the fight of his life against local nurse O'Bray Smith (ALP). The bookies like Smith by some margin here.

Prediction: Labor gain.

Londonderry (5.3% Liberal)

Redistribution has shrunk the LIberals' advantage here with new boundaries taking in Labor strongholds. Liberal candidate Bernard Bratusa has replaced the serving MP Bart Bassett,  who moved to the crossbench last year after ICAC heard allegations Nathan Tinkler's property development company made an illegal $18,000 donation to his 2011 campaign. Prue Car is Labor's candidate and she has lived in western Sydney her whole life.

Blue Mountains (5.4% Liberal)

A swinging seat Liberal Roza Sage, a former dentist, wrested the Blue Mountains from the Labor party in 2011 after 16 years. Her opponent is local teacher Trish Doyle.

Campbelltown (6.8% Liberal)

A shift in boundaries favours the Liberal party, which will be keen to hold what was once a traditional Labor seat. Greg Warren takes on the sitting MP Bryan Doyle.

Also watch: Coogee (8.3% Liberal), Seven Hills (8.8% Liberal), Kiama (8.6% Liberal), Holsworthy (10.7% Liberal), Mulgoa (12.4% Liberal).

The Central Coast and Hunter

Swansea (0.3% Liberal)

Sitting MP Garry Edwards will run for the seat as an independent after he was expelled from the Liberal Party following allegations at ICAC that he took an illegal cash donation of between $1500 and $1800. The ALP's Yasmin Catley has a real shot because Edwards could split the conservative vote.

Prediction: Labor gain

Wyong (4.6% Liberal)

Redistribution increased the Liberals' margin to 4.6 per cent, giving Liberal newcomer Sandra Kerr a chance. The Labor candidate is David Harris who held the same seat from 2007 to 2011.

Maitland (4.6% Liberal)

Liberals hold this seat in the lower Hunter Valley by a reduced margin following redistribution. Two locals, Steve Thomson for the Liberals and Jenny Aitchison for Labor, go head-to-head.

Also watch: The Entrance (11.8% Liberal) , Port Stephens (14.7% Liberal), Upper Hunter (23% National).

The progressive heartland

Newtown (4.4% Greens)

A fascinating battle in this new, socially progressive seat between the Greens' Jenny Leong and Labor's transport spokeswoman Penny Sharpe, who is trying to move to the lower house.  Leong holds a notional 4.4 per cent margin but a recent Herald poll favoured Sharpe. The bookies have Sharpe a fraction in front.

Balmain (5% Greens)

The gentrified inner west seat has been a close battle between Labor and the Greens for more than a decade and was almost a three-way tie last time. Greens incumbent Jamie Parker again faces Labor's Verity Firth. Last time, the  Liberals won the primary vote ahead of the Greens with Labor preferences getting Parker home. This time, Liberal preferences could decide the outcome.

Nats under pressure

Ballina (24.6% National)

This safe National Party seat is tipped to fall to Labor mostly because of CSG mining. Paul Spooner is the ALP's candidate and will be relying on Greens preferences to whittle away the Nationals' 24.6 per cent margin. A Herald poll at he weekend showed Spooner would defeat Nationals candidate Kris Beavis on a two-party preferred basis, and the bookies think so too.

Prediction: Labor gain

Tamworth (6.8% National)

Independent Peter Draper is challenging for the seat he held for eight years before being rolled by the Nationals' Kevin Anderson in 2011. Labor preferences may help Draper over the line.

Also watch: Tweed (21.7%), Lismore (24.3% National), Upper Hunter (23% National) and Barwon (25.8% National), where long-time National MPs are facing stiff challenges from Greens and Labor, and in Barwon and Tamworth, an independent.

High-profile hopefuls

Lakemba (7.3% Labor)

School principal Jihad Dib is the Labor candidate in this multicultural tapestry of modern Sydney. He is a highly regarded community leader whose election will be a huge bonus to Labor as it tries to re-establish itself as a force in NSW politics.

Prediction: Labor hold.

Strathfield (6.4% LIberal)

Labor's anti-corruption hero Jodi McKay takes on sitting MP Charles Casuscelli, who benefits from boundary changes. Herald polling shows McKay is popular across the state and winning this seat by the slimmest of margins. With the bookies, this isn't even close.

Prediction: Labor gain

Penrith (16.1% Liberal)

On paper, and with a big splash of promises, Liberal Stuart Ayres should be safe with his 16 per cent margin. But the insertion of former federal Liberal MP Jackie Kelly, who is preferencing Labor, into the contest as an independent on an anti-Badgerys Creek airport platform makes it interesting. While the planned airport sits across neighbouring electorates Mulgoa and Camden, many here are looking to it to provide much-needed jobs to the area. Others fear the noise and increased traffic congestion. Just  how much we will find out.

Prediction: Liberal hold.

Against the trend

Wollongong (9.3% Labor)

One of the  few seats Labor could lose, due to the South Coast Labor Council's Arthur Rorris running as an independent, backed by the Wollongong mayor, against the polarising Labor candidate Noreen Hay.  Labor,  though, has benefited from redistribution. The Liberal candidate is national car racing driver Cameron Walters.

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