It may seem premature to call Jamie Whincup's V8 Supercars title defence over when the championship has only just passed the halfway mark, but he is now far enough behind to be ruled out of all but mathematical contention.
After 20 of 36 races, Whincup is eighth in the championship standings and trailing entrenched series leader Mark Winterbottom by 483 points after another difficult weekend in the three-race Ipswich SuperSprint.
Falling further behind Winterbottom, whose cushion at the top of the table was extended to 256 points over in-form V8 veteran Craig Lowndes from two wins and a third place at Queensland Raceway, has put Whincup in an almost unrecoverable position.
While there are still 16 races at seven events to go over the next four months, his deficit is now the equivalent of more than 1½ events, with each worth a maximum 300 points.
His uncharacteristic struggle in his previously dominant Triple Eight Holden Commodore has been so sustained that the prospect of him staging one of his renowned fightbacks is diminishing.
Most concerning is that his 41-year-old teammate Lowndes is shining in the twilight of his career, remaining competitive and in title contention in identical equipment.
Despite expressing confidence that Whincup will be competitive in next month's Sandown 500 and October's Bathurst 1000, even Lowndes doubts he can come from so far behind to contend for the title.
"He's having a terrible year," Lowndes said. "I know he'll bounce back, but winning the title be a long shot at the moment."
The points gap Whincup has to bridge just to revive his bid for a record-extending seventh V8 crown would be yawning even if he were in front-running form.
But Winterbottom has the pace and consistency in his Prodrive Racing Australia Ford Falcon to build on what has become a commanding, if not comfortable, points advantage.
He has the luxury of scoring podiums when wins – of which he has a season-high eight – are not achievable and still stay in control of the title race.
Winterbottom, the perennial bridesmaid during Whincup's six-title rampage, faces his biggest threat from Lowndes, who is mounting one of his most convincing championship challenges in recent years despite his vintage, and his PRA teammate Chaz Mostert.
Mostert is the qualifying king with eight pole positions – by far the most so far this year – but has had a poor conversion rate.
He finally used his pole to full advantage in Sunday's 65-lap, 200-kilometre decider at Queensland Raceway, at Willowbank near Ipswich, to score his third race victory of the season.
Mostert celebrated his extended contract renewal last week, which ties him to PRA on a bigger annual salary until the end of 2019, by racing away from Lowndes and Winterbottom to consolidate his third position in the championship.
Last year's Bathurst 1000 co-winner is 292 points behind Winterbottom, but just 36 back from Lowndes, and looms as a serious title contender if he continues to turn his qualifying pace into more of the runaway wins of which he is capable when he runs from the front.
