More than nine in 10 domestic seafarers will lose their jobs if the Abbott government's plan to relax shipping regulations passes Parliament, research suggests.
Less than 100 seafarers would remain in employment out of a current workforce of 1177, according to a report written by the Australia Institute, based on government documents supporting its Shipping Legislation Amendment Bill.
The dire forecast comes as a major Bass Strait freight company, SeaRoad, warned it will reconsider a $100 million investment in two new cargo vessels if the government pushes ahead and dumps rules that force foreign vessels to pay their crew Australian wages while working domestic routes.
Stakeholders, including shipping industry representatives, the ACTU and three Senate crossbenchers, John Madigan, Ricky Muir and Jacqui Lambie, will meet in Melbourne on Friday to discuss the threat to jobs and national fuel security.
Senator Madigan, who will co-chair the crisis summit, said the "Abbott doctrine of allowing the car industry to go under was being extended to local shipping" and ACTU secretary Dave Oliver predicted the "death of the Australian shipping industry" unless the bill is blocked.
With the size of the domestic shipping fleet declining to just 49, the government wants to drive down the price of freight between Australian ports by opening up the sector to more foreign competition. Business complains that shipping freight to and from Asia is cheaper than interstate.
Under the proposed changes to the Coastal Trading Act, foreign-flagged ships with all foreign crews would be allowed to pay international wages - about a third of Australian pay – on domestic routes for up to half the year.
According to international maritime data, an Australian able seaman receives $US2742 a month compared to an average $US850 a month paid to the crew of ships involved in international freight.
In the supporting documents to the Shipping Legislation Amendment Bill, introduced by Deputy Prime Minister Warren Truss, the government concedes there will be a "potential loss of Australian seafarer jobs" but does not put a number on how many.
But Rod Campbell, who authored the Australia Institute report, commissioned by the Maritime Union of Australia, used ratios provided in the accompanying cost-benefit analysis to project that 93 per cent of the industry would not survive.
For example, the Bass Strait non-bulk freight route between Victoria and Tasmania is currently serviced by 100 per cent Australian crew. Under the government's projections that would become 65 per cent foreign and 35 per cent Australian – due only to the likely retention of Australian crew on the two Tasmanian government-owned Spirit of Tasmania ferries.
Cruise ship work would decline from 40 per cent Australian to 100 per cent foreign and all movements of iron ore, bauxite, petrol and crude oil between domestic ports would be taken by foreign crew.
Mr Campbell was critical of the government's projected economic benefits because they are based on a 2012 Deloitte report that was sponsored by the Cement Industry Federation, the Minerals Council of Australia and the Fertiliser Industry Federation.
The Minerals Council and the cement industry have both made submissions in support of the government's plan to the Senate committee reviewing the shipping bill.
The bill appears doomed in its current form, with enough crossbench opposition to vote it down with Labor and the Greens.
Senator Muir said: 'I've got some serious concerns over what might happen to Australia's shipping industry if this legislation is passed."
Senator Lambie has put her reservations about the bill, particularly its effect on Bass Strait trade, on the public record.
In his submission to the Senate inquiry, SeaRoad owner Michael Easy said it was "crucial to Tasmania's future and Australia's credibility" that the current regulations are not thrown out.
Canada, the US, Brazil and India all have laws that ensure local shipping crews are favoured over foreign crews. The US insists that all ships working between American ports are even built in the US.
Mr Truss' office has been contacted for comment.
