CSIRO is expected to offer an alternative to deep cuts of its climate science program as soon as this week in a bid to defuse criticism as a Senate committee prepares to widen its inquiry to include chairman David Thodey.
Mr Thodey is scheduled to address the committee in Canberra on Wednesday. Unusually, the chairman has asked the session be held in camera and that he not be joined by CSIRO management, Fairfax Media has been told.
Speculation of a resolution was fanned by Environment Minister Greg Hunt last week breaking his silence on the cuts, which originally targeted as many as 110 of the 140 staff in the key Oceans & Atmosphere division.
"We have sought to broker an outcome that will protect and enhance climate science in Australia," Mr Hunt told ABC's Lateline.
Fairfax Media understands efforts to shift climate modellers and monitoring researchers left remaining after the cuts to the Bureau of Meteorology foundered over a lack of funds. The bureau, whose chief Rob Vertessy retires this week, has been struggling to maintain funding of its own for its water programs and demanded CSIRO funds to accompany any staff transfers.
The CSIRO board was not happy with the bureau's proposal either, concerned that the export of top staff for climate research will set a precedent for future dismantling of the agency, according to a senior scientist who declined to be named.
Instead, senior CSIRO staff now expect the agency to pare back the planned cuts and offer a "face-saving" alternative of a special climate unit, possibly headquartered in Hobart.
To reassure remaining scientists that they have a future with the organisation, management will introduce a lower revenue target compared with other parts of CSIRO to show its commitment to so-called public good science that does not always attract paying customers.
A dedicated climate unit, supposedly modelled on the UK's world-leading Hadley Centre, was promoted by Chief Scientist Alan Finkel and leading climate scientists as one way to salvage climate capability amid the turmoil.
CSIRO announced on February 4 a plan to axe a total of 350 staff before re-hiring a similar number in other areas. CSIRO's staff association estimates the full toll will swell to 450 of the 5000-plus employees.
The bureau is understood to have drawn up a list of as many as 50 CSIRO staff it needed to maintain critical research in its weather and longer-term climate prediction, and to support its Cape Grim monitoring site on Tasmania's north-west coast.
These staff would now remain with CSIRO if this centre eventuates, although it remains unclear how many other researchers will be saved.
CSIRO declined to rule out the possibility of a new centre, although a spokeswoman indicated the agency would be maintaining key capabilities.
"CSIRO is the best organisation in the nation to map the path to prosperity, sustainability, and societal benefit," a CSIRO spokeswoman said. "Our climate science is an important part of this."
A spokesman for Science Minister Christopher Pyne said consultation was continuing "to ensure CSIRO's climate research will continue to be world class".
The agency would "ensure Australia has access to state of the art climate models to understand our changing climate and inform adaptation and mitigation decisions", the spokesman said.
Tasmanian Greens senator Peter Whish-Wilson, who heads the committee, warned that a new centre alone would not be enough.
"This whole farce of a process has so damaged CSIRO's reputation and culture, and so devalued the work of climate scientists and other public good research that CSIRO risks losing key personnel across the board, above and beyond proposed staff cuts," Senator Whish-Wilson said.
Labor's shadow industry minister Kim Carr said that as the Fair Work Commission had ordered more consultation between management and staff, the entire move to cut staff should be put on hold.
"There's still time to halt these cuts," Senator Carr said, noting that the government is effectively entering a caretaker mode as a July 2 election looms. "They can still be reversed and it should be done now."
Fairfax Media also sought comment from Mr Thodey.
Ocean and atmosphere executives are scheduled to address staff on Tuesday afternoon.
