London: Australia shouldn't count on the UK government following through with its promise of a free trade deal after Brexit, because it may end up sticking with the European Union's trade bloc instead, a leading European politician has warned.
Former Finnish prime minister Alexander Stubb emerged from a series of top-level meetings in Whitehall this week with the impression that Brexiteers are not committed to a full exit from the EU trade zone.
Instead they are wondering whether they could negotiate a "have the cake and eat it" position, where they gain some freedoms from Brussels but keep a close trade relationship that might preclude outside deals.
"One [option] that I hear echoed in the halls of Whitehall but I'm not too convinced about myself would be that the UK would remain a member of the Customs Union," Mr Stubb said.
The European Union Customs Union consists of all the EU member states as well as Monaco and the Channel Islands. One of the conditions of the union is that it negotiates external trade deals as a bloc.
"How that would work in practice I don't know," Mr Stubb said. "But for the UK to detach itself from the Customs Union would complicate things.
"The problem here is ... what about them establishing bilateral trade agreements with third parties? You kind of can't do that if you're part of a customs union."
Mr Stubb said he wasn't just hearing this from members of the government who had always favoured the Remain side.
"It's interesting, it's the Brexiteers who say this, that this could be possible. But yet the Brexiteers are the ones who say 'we're going to establish strong bilateral trade relations with third parties'."
Such a result might end up simplifying matters for Australia, which is about to begin formal negotiations on a free trade deal with the EU.
Mr Stubb, who as former Finnish foreign minister and prime minister has a lot of contacts around Europe, said he had formed this view after meeting "two government ministers dealing with Brexit", having lunch with George Osborne and David Cameron, and meetings with Tony Blair and "a lot of old civil servant friends".
He said he was sensing fractures within the Conservative party over how to deal with Brexit.
In particular he predicted "political sacrifices", speculating there were one too many ministers with Brexit on their portfolio.
Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson is sharing not just the Brexit responsibility, but even his ministry's traditional home, Chevening House, with two other Brexiteers: international trade secretary Liam Fox and Brexit secretary David Davis.
The split has resulted in a fierce tug of war over responsibilities, with Mr Johnson resisting attempts to poach staff from the Foreign Office.
On Thursday Mr Johnson told the BBC that the UK would "probably" begin formal negotiations to leave the EU early in 2017.
"What is clear I think to our friends and partners in the EU is … we are not leaving Europe," he said
"Although we are leaving the EU treaties, we do want to have the closest possible trading relationship and it's very much in their interests to achieve that... it's very much in their interests to do a great free trade deal with us, and I think that will happen."
British political scientist John Curtice has been analysing post-referendum polls to try to answer the question of "what does Brexit mean".
The problem is the country is just as divided on this question as it was on Brexit itself, he said.
"Remainers want to keep free trade, Brexiteers above all want to end freedom of movement," he said. "But actually there is quite an appetite inside the UK for some kind of compromise that means, yes we will have quite a lot of access to the free market but we also have some control over immigration."
A fairly strong majority of Brits want to stay in the single market, he said.
The country – and the government – is hoping that the European Union will be willing to come to a compromise, Prof Curtice said.
"That's the potentially awkward position for the UK government, that people do want to have their cake and eat it, and indeed this is roughly what they are expecting (to happen)."
