Crushed by Sunrise: Today on cusp of losing 2017 ratings battle

Strange thing is, that's the opinion of Nine – but not Seven. You're reading that right: Today may soon be forced to concede defeat, while Sunrise refuses to claim victory. (Not yet, anyway.)

It appears that Nine has painted itself into a corner.

According to Australia's No. 2 network, annual supremacy is achieved when a program wins at least 21 of the 40 "official" ratings weeks. And that's just in the five major cities.

In October last year, Nine used this measurement to declare Todayhad won 2016. No ifs or buts. According to its media release, Todaywas simply "unbeatable" in the metropolitan markets. 

The problem for Nine is that – by its own barometer – its arch-rival is now on the verge of triumph.

So far this year, Sunrise – hosted by Samantha Armytage and David Koch – has won 15 ratings weeks. Today – fronted by Karl Stefanovic and Lisa Wilkinson – has claimed only five. During one week, the programs tied. (Ratings figures are rounded, which is how they ended up neck-and-neck. But Sunrise was actually ahead by several hundred viewers.)

If Sunrise wins just six more weeks in the capital cities, Today must admit it has lost the year. For Today to deem itself the victor, it needs to claim another 16 weeks.

This could be tough, given it trails its competitor by every measure.

This year, Sunrise is averaging 297,000 city viewers to Today's290,000. Twelve months ago, Today was ahead.

The gap widens when regional audiences are included. Fair enough, too: why should country viewers be ignored? 

Nationally, Sunrise has won every ratings week. And it has grown its winning margin, averaging 527,000 viewers – a full 90,000 ahead of Today. (Because breakfast shows are not watched from start to finish, their averages look small. In fact, around 2.4 million people catch at least five minutes of Today across a working week, while 2.6 million watch Sunrise.)

Today's position is not helped by countless headlines about Stefanovic's divorce from Cassandra Thorburn, his wife of 21 years. His intermittent absences from the show, and paparazzi photos with new girlfriend Jasmine Yarbrough, are also causing headaches.

"Nine are trying to mitigate the fact that the way this new relationship has played out could be a very bad look [for Karl] and could, in fact, turn off some of their viewers," media analyst Steve Allen, CEO of Fusion Strategy, told Fairfax Media in February.

"It fractures that whole family man image and puts a stick in the spokes to the strategy that Karl, Today and Nine have had around his whole career. It really does have potential to do damage to the viewership of Today and any other program he is involved in." (Stefanovic has filmed a new reality show called This Time Next Year.)

So why won't Sunrise trumpet the fact it's nearing 21 weekly victories?

Seven maintains that annual averages override weekly wins. This makes sense; it's a more accurate way to gauge the size of audiences.

Such disagreements can become more than inter-network sniping.

After Today crowned itself "Australia's No. 1 breakfast program", Sunrise pointed out an inconvenient fact: it had more viewers. Seven then sued Nine for "misleading or deceptive conduct". Moments before they were due to face off in the Federal Court, a settlement was reached, and Nine amended its on-air promos.

Last week, Stefanovic told Fairfax Media: "I think if we're honest with ourselves, we were so hellbent on winning last year that we may have lost focus on the most important thing: the viewers. But now we're back to winning the hearts and minds of viewers with great content, and I think we're doing that."

Seven dismisses Nine's 21-week hurdle as "phony" and "a bit like a half-time victory lap". 

Despite the enormous success of Nine's Ninja Warrior, the network has won just two metropolitan ratings weeks this year. Seven is No. 1 on audience share, with a 29.9 per cent slice of primetime viewers to Nine's 27.9 per cent. Ten is in third place on 18.4 per cent, followed by ABC on 16.8 per cent and SBS on 7.1 per cent.