The Turnbull government's national energy guarantee is set for a rocky reception when energy ministers meet in Hobart, with one state declaring new modelling confirmed its "worst fears", and another saying it was "deeply disappointing".
Federal Environment and Energy minister Josh Frydenberg will front the dinner on Thursday night and is expected to release a paper during Friday's talks that has yet to be shared with state and territory counterparts.
The federal government provided a summary of its modelling for the energy guarantee on Wednesday, claiming wholesale prices would be as much as 23 per cent lower than business usual under the dual "guarantee" to cut emissions while improving reliability of the nation's ailing electricity grid.
South Australia Energy Minister Tom Koutsantonis indicated his state would reject the plan, which needs consensus from all parties to proceed. For historical reasons, changes to the National Electricity Market also need to pass the SA parliament.
The energy guarantee modelling released so far "confirms my worst fears", Mr Koutsantonis told reporters, adding the scheme "is designed to guarantee more coal".
Of particular concern to South Australia's Labor government is that the scheme would bolster the clout of the big "gentailers", AGL and Origin Energy, which dominate generation and retailing in the state.
"We need to smash their monopoly power into a thousand pieces, not entrench it," he said, adding any future consolidation would "quite frankly [be] a disaster".
Victoria was more circumspect, as the Labor government there continues to analyse the information provided by Canberra.
A spokesman for Lily D'Ambrosio, Victoria's Minister for Energy, Environment and Climate Change, said the state was again "deeply disappointed" in the manner the energy guarantee modelling was "announced without consultation with the states".
"Josh Frydenberg is more interested in briefing newspapers than COAG partners," the spokesman said.
"We won't commit to a political fix for Malcolm Turnbull - we will deliver an energy policy that ensures Victorian families and businesses get the affordable, reliable and clean energy they deserve."
Mr Frydenberg was unavailable to comment.
'Unanswered questions'
One senior state official told Fairfax Media the federal government's handling of the energy issue continued to flout any standard of policy process.
"We don't know where it's going to go," the official said, adding, "what is the curve as far as emissions go?"
The federal government is supposed to release its review of climate policies before the end of 2017.
Queensland's Energy Minister Mark Bailey, meanwhile said the NEG as proposed "still has too many unanswered questions - the impact on jobs in our booming renewables industry and how Queenslander's bills will be affected".
"We have concerns that bill savings for Queenslanders could be much less than $120 [per year], which is an average across the NEM," he said???. "While any savings from the NEG wouldn't flow for two years, our Affordable Energy Plan will deliver savings from 1 January 2018."
Queensland will be represented at the Hobart talks by a senior bureaucrat, ahead of Saturday's state elections.
'Thought bubble'
Hopes of a bipartisan federal agreement on the energy guarantee also appear to be fading, with Labor's climate spokesman Mark Butler saying the modelling released for the government's "latest energy policy thought bubble confirms their attack on renewable energy will continue".
"The modelling shows the NEG will crush investment in solar PV with no additional solar - including rooftop - expected until 2028," Mr Butler said.
The renewable energy mix is only expected to reach 36 per cent by 2030, Mr Butler said, a mere 0.5 per cent increase above already committed investment every year over the 2020s.
In exchange, the best the modelling could offer in terms of price savings amid rocketing power bills was the equivalent of $2.30 a week in three years' time, he said.
Don Harwon, NSW's Energy Minister, declined to comment ahead of the Hobart gathering, a spokesman said.
