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Not only do the numbers not lie, they act as a self-fulfilling prophecy. This was Australia's 10th win in a row at home, and their 14th in the last 17, with only one defeat. This was India's fifth away defeat in a row, and their 15th in the last 18, with only one win.
For every touring team, every summer, there is a time, a place and a breaking point. On Saturday, it was the Gabba nets, before play. Indian batsmen Virat Kohli and Shikhar Dhawan were struck on arm and wrist respectively, prompting Dhawan to retire hurt before play. Immediately, a siege mentality settled on the Indian camp, which protested the standard of the practice pitches, also the lack of a gym, and in their paranoia refused even to divulge which bowler or bowlers had inflicted the damage.
Kohli, the lesser damaged, substituted Dhawan at the crease, but in the fourth over played a quick, straightening Mitch Johnson delivery into his stumps. Nineteen balls later, India were half out and still had not covered Australia's lead. Johnson had his first three wickets of the match, all from balls leaping as fiendishly as they did last summer, but not this term until now.
A Test match replete with possibilities at the call of "play" had been reduced in a stroke to one certainty, as inevitable as death and taxes. Batsmen and spinners take hours to win matches, but fast bowlers can do it in breathtaking minutes. It is Johnson's calling.
India's luck ran out with its form. Johnson's deliveries to dismiss Ajinkya Rahane and Rohit Sharma each was legal by a micro-millimetre. Ravi Ashwin did not hit a ball from Mitch Starc that straightened between bat and body, as DRS would have shown, but was given out anyway.
Dhawan bravely forewent X-rays to emerge and play a classy counter-attacking innings of 81, but fell when he reached out to play a paddle sweep at Nathan Lyon, and although the bowler choked off his appeal, Dhawan was given out anyway. On balance of probability, the ball had pitched in line and straightened enough to hit the stumps, and Dhawan made no objection. But it patently did not take the imaginative trajectory that ball-tracking described for it. India refuses to countenance DRS because it distrusts ball-tracking, and with reason.
Johnson gave this match its two decisive wrenches, with the bat on Friday and the ball on Saturday morning. The pity for India became starkly apparent as Australia made a historically typical hash of a modest run chase. The attacking resolve was fine – creeping up on small targets only startles them and they frequently get away – but some of the strokeplay was lamentable.
Chris Rogers, alone of all the batsmen, struck a balance, making a run-a-ball 50 with only authentic cricket shots. The best were hit square through the off-side, and would have done David Warner proud. But Australia expended all their specialist batting, and their suddenly gun-shy wicketkeeper, and were through again to Johnson before they salvaged the win.
The Indians will never know what might have been if Virat Kohli had not dropped Australian captain Steve Smith at second slip when he was merely nine. On a day when 15 wickets fell, this check on the avalanche might have been just enough to save Australia. It was also one of several instances in this match in which protagonists of spite have been bitten back by the game. Even – or especially – in cricket, there is karma.
Two hurt teams now limp to Melbourne and Boxing Day, and oddly enough, Australia might be the sorer. Warner and Mitch Marsh are grave injury doubts, which redoubles the pressure on Shane Watson, who again is in no man's land, a desolate place he knows well. Mitch Starc is in turmoil. Brad Haddin, when batting, suddenly looks all his 37 years. He is keeping beautifully, but that has not been enough for Australian glovemen since the days of Rod Marsh, now the chief selector.
India's boast, hollow as it may be, is that in this pair of Tests, Australia's winning margin have been narrower than any other in their run of 10. Most of India's batsmen have made runs, most of their bowlers have taken wickets. They trail because of tails, failing to extract runs from their own bottom order or restrain Australia's. Perhaps in trying to match Australia's machismo, they have been excitable, excessive and distracted.
In the prelude, it was widely conjectured that India would subordinate the Test series to the World Cup. In fact, India have come with better intentions than most of their chronically resigned forbears. Now they need to corral them.
